FC Winterthur 1–5 FC ST. Gallen: Result & Stats

FC Winterthur

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

FC ST. Gallen

R. Schneider 90'

D. Besio 82'

A. Vogt 67', 6'

C. Kleine-Bekel 65'

C. Boukhalfa 21'

2/18/2026

Super League · Round 20Stadion Schützenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Winterthur40%

×Draw23%

FC ST. Gallen37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC WinterthurExpected goals in this matchFC ST. Gallen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.61

FC Winterthur

1.67

FC ST. Gallen

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

1.48

1.75

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

FC Winterthur

1.37

FC ST. Gallen

1.48

allows per match

FC Winterthur

1.75

FC ST. Gallen

1.97

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

FC Winterthur-0.54scores less

FC ST. Gallen+0.43scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Winterthur ↓

FC ST. Gallen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Winterthur or draw

63%

FC Winterthur or FC ST. Gallen

77%

Draw or FC ST. Gallen

60%

Winning margin

FC Winterthur wins by 2+

20%

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Winterthur 1+ goals

81%

FC Winterthur 2+ goals

50%

FC Winterthur 3+ goals

23%

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

80%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

48%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Winterthur (draw refunded)

52%

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Winterthur at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.75 · 6 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.97 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Winterthur attack 1.37 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.48 + FC Winterthur defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Winterthur scores more

40%

level

23%

FC ST. Gallen scores more

37%

FC Winterthur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Winterthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Vogt

FC ST. Gallen · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

A. Vogt↳ L. Gortler

12'

Lukas GörtlerGoal cancelled

19'

Adrian Durrer

21'

C. Boukhalfa↳ L. Gortler

26'

34'

36'

46'

46'

M. Kryeziu← R. Arnold

60'

E. Maluvunu← N. Burkart

65'

C. Kleine-Bekel↳ C. Witzig

67'

A. Vogt

70'

M. Stevanovic← L. Daschner

70'

D. Besio← A. Balde

72'

L. Zuffi← A. Jankewitz

72'

R. Buess← A. Hunziker

79'

C. Konietzke← L. Gortler

79'

N. Weibel← C. Boukhalfa

82'

D. Besio

84'

J. Ruiz← H. Vandermersch

90'

R. Schneider↳ T. Golliard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots25

1.99Expected Goals (xG)2.12

3Corners10

16Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots25

5On Target11

5Off Target9

5Blocked5

9Inside Box20

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

300Total Passes268

189Accurate Passes182

63%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

0.92Goals Prevented0.92

Discipline

16Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3