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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2024

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
L. Daschner 21'
L. Bajrami 78'
N. Burkart 53'
M. Di Giusto 35'
J. Lukembila 30'
5/10/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 2kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC ST. Gallen53%
×Draw20%
FC Winterthur27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
2.25
FC Winterthur
1.56

FC ST. Gallen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.31
FC Winterthur
1.85

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.28
FC Winterthur
2.19

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.23scores less
FC Winterthur+0.03on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
73%
FC ST. Gallen or FC Winterthur
80%
Draw or FC Winterthur
47%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
32%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
89%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
65%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
39%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
79%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
46%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
67%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.19 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.31 + FC Winterthur defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.25

FC Winterthur attack 1.85 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
53%
level
20%
FC Winterthur scores more
27%

FC ST. Gallen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
N. BurkartFC WinterthurFC Winterthur · M
8.6

Match Events

4'
Jozo Stanić
21'
L. Daschner↳ C. Konietzke
22'
F. Mambimbi← L. Görtler
28'
Remo Arnold
30'
J. Lukembila↳ N. Burkart
35'
M. Di Giusto↳ J. Lukembila
43'
H. Vandermersch← J. Stanić
45'
Christian Witzig
46'
K. Faber← C. Okoroji
48'
Silvan Sidler
53'
N. Burkart↳ J. Lukembila
59'
S. Cueni← L. Zuffi
66'
C. Akolo← C. Witzig
66'
M. Stevanović← C. Konietzke
68'
Alexandre Jankewitz
70'
F. Frei← M. Di Giusto
70'
L. Mühl← C. Gomis
76'
R. Buess← N. Burkart
76'
L. Bajrami← J. Lukembila
78'
L. Bajrami↳ R. Buess

Possession

64%FC

Shots

20FC

Pass accuracy

55%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
64%Possession36%
20Total Shots14
1.93Expected Goals (xG)2.17
7Corners5
12Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots14
5On Target7
7Off Target6
8Blocked1
13Inside Box11
7Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
559Total Passes316
461Accurate Passes211
82%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Winterthur

FC Winterthur beat FC ST. Gallen 4-1 in Super League on May 10, 2025.

Goals: L. Daschner (21'), J. Lukembila (30'), M. Di Giusto (35'), N. Burkart (53'), L. Bajrami (78').

FC ST. Gallen controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.