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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2024

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
A. Vogt 90' (pen), 76'
P. Kasami 21'
2/28/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC ST. Gallen53%
×Draw20%
FC Winterthur27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
2.25
FC Winterthur
1.56

FC ST. Gallen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.31
FC Winterthur
1.85

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.28
FC Winterthur
2.19

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.23scores less
FC Winterthur+0.03on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
73%
FC ST. Gallen or FC Winterthur
80%
Draw or FC Winterthur
47%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
32%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
89%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
65%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
39%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
79%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
46%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
67%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.19 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.31 + FC Winterthur defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.25

FC Winterthur attack 1.85 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
53%
level
20%
FC Winterthur scores more
27%

FC ST. Gallen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. KapinoFC WinterthurFC Winterthur · G
8.9

Match Events

20'
Jozo Stanić
21'
P. Kasami↳ T. Citherlet
28'
Stefanos Kapino
37'
Alessandro VogtPenalty confirmed
38'
Lukas Mühl
39'
Silvan Sidler
45+2'
Pajtim Kasami
50'
Dario Ulrich
62'
F. Rohner← D. Ulrich
62'
N. Burkart← T. Golliard
66'
D. Besio← A. Balde
68'
Fabian Rohner
71'
Alessandro VogtGoal cancelled
73'
R. Smith← S. Sidler
76'
A. Vogt
81'
N. Weibel← C. Witzig
81'
L. Zuffi← P. Kasami
81'
A. Hunziker← R. Schneider
90+1'
Alessandro VogtPenalty confirmed
90+5'
C. Kleine-Bekel← L. Daschner
90'
A. VogtPenalty

Possession

64%FC

Shots

19FC

Pass accuracy

57%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
64%Possession36%
19Total Shots8
3.77Expected Goals (xG)1.47
10Corners3
15Fouls15
Shots
19Total Shots8
6On Target4
9Off Target3
4Blocked1
14Inside Box6
5Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
429Total Passes258
349Accurate Passes156
81%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
1.53Goals Prevented1.53
Discipline
15Fouls15
1Yellow Cards6
1Offsides2

Super League: FC ST. Gallen 2–1 FC Winterthur

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Winterthur 2-1 in Super League on February 28, 2026.

Goals: P. Kasami (21'), A. Vogt (76', 90' pen).

FC ST. Gallen controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.