FC ST. Gallen vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
FC ST. Gallen54%
FC Winterthur26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC ST. Gallen creates 49% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC ST. Gallen ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches
FC Winterthur away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.23 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC ST. Gallen attack 2.25 + FC Winterthur defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.24
FC Winterthur attack 1.80 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
FC ST. Gallen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC ThunFC ST. Gallen
FC Lugano
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
BSC Young Boys
FC Luzern
Servette FC
Lausanne
FC Zurich
GrasshoppersFC WinterthurIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FC ST. Gallen host FC Winterthur on Saturday, 9 August 2025 at 16:00. The match is part of the Super League 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Winterthur
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Winterthur 5-0 in Super League on August 9, 2025.
Goals: A. Vogt (7', 45'), C. Boukhalfa (27'), A. Balde (68'), C. Konietzke (77').
FC Winterthur controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 18.
The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.