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FC Volendam vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Volendam
FC Volendam
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
D. van Mieghem 90+1'
G. Oristanio 61'
J. Sleegers 49', 6'
5/6/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

FC Volendam52%
×Draw22%
FC Eindhoven26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Volendam
1.94
FC Eindhoven
1.33

FC Volendam creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 143 away

creates per match

FC Volendam
2.22
FC Eindhoven
1.30

allows per match

FC Volendam
1.37
FC Eindhoven
1.66

finishing

FC Volendam+0.00on par
FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw
74%
FC Volendam or FC Eindhoven
78%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
48%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+
29%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals
86%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
58%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
30%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
74%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
38%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)
66%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 2.22 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Eindhoven attack 1.30 + FC Volendam defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Volendam scores more
52%
level
22%
FC Eindhoven scores more
26%

FC Volendam at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
D. van MieghemFC VolendamFC Volendam · F
8.0

Match Events

6'
J. Sleegers↳ B. Rácz
15'
W. Ould-Chikh← D. James
34'
Boy Deul
46'
B. van Duijl← A. Plat
46'
K. Visser← M. Kaars
46'
C. Faber← M. Verreth
49'
J. Sleegers↳ V. Vermeulen
53'
M. van Rosmalen← J. Sleegers
54'
K. Oostenbrink← B. De Keersmaecker
61'
G. Oristanio↳ D. Murkin
64'
I. El Kadiri← G. Oristanio
70'
C. Seedorf← J. Dahlhaus
71'
Derry Murkin
73'
L. Zeefuik← F. Antonucci
76'
J. Ogenia← J. van der Sande
80'
Mitchel Van Rosmalen
82'
Cas Faber
82'
D. Vlak← F. Stanković
90+1'
D. van Mieghem

Possession

56%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

52%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
56%Possession44%
16Total Shots16
5Corners7
9Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots16
6On Target8
6Off Target6
4Blocked2
7Inside Box14
9Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
447Total Passes356
335Accurate Passes249
75%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: FC Volendam 2–2 FC Eindhoven

FC Volendam and FC Eindhoven drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on May 6, 2022.

Goals: J. Sleegers (6', 49'), G. Oristanio (61'), D. van Mieghem (90+1').

FC Volendam controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.