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FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
E. Rottier 11'
M. Amevor 82'
B. Kuwas 41'
N. Bukala 22'
1/10/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Eindhoven37%
×Draw24%
FC Volendam39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.54
FC Volendam
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 91 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.61
FC Volendam
1.69

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.45
FC Volendam
1.46

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par
FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
61%
FC Eindhoven or FC Volendam
76%
Draw or FC Volendam
63%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
18%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
79%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
45%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
20%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
79%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
46%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
49%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.45 · 149 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.61 + FC Volendam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Volendam attack 1.69 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
37%
level
24%
FC Volendam scores more
39%

FC Volendam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. AmevorFC VolendamFC Volendam · D
8.3

Match Events

11'
E. Rottier↳ B. van Schuppen
22'
N. Bukala↳ R. Mühren
27'
S. Simons← B. van Schuppen
41'
B. Kuwas↳ B. Ould-Chikh
68'
J. Jacobs← B. Kuwas
78'
J. Kwaaitaal← S. Simons
82'
M. Amevor↳ B. Ould-Chikh
88'
H. Deenen← E. Rottier
88'
M. Zijlstra← H. Veerman

Possession

37%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots13
2Corners4
10Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots13
2On Target5
3Off Target4
3Blocked4
8Inside Box10
0Outside Box3
Passing
37%Possession63%
341Total Passes577
267Accurate Passes495
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: FC Eindhoven 1–3 FC Volendam

FC Volendam beat FC Eindhoven 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 10, 2025.

Goals: E. Rottier (11'), N. Bukala (22'), B. Kuwas (41'), M. Amevor (82').

FC Volendam controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.