FC Eindhoven 1–1 FC Volendam: Result & Stats

FC Eindhoven

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Volendam

D. Jap Tjong 62'

Z. El Azzouzi 19'

2/27/2021

Eerste Divisie · Round 26Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Eindhoven37%

×Draw24%

FC Volendam39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EindhovenExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.57

FC Eindhoven

1.54

FC Volendam

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 91 away

1.61

creates per match

1.69

1.45

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FC Eindhoven

1.61

FC Volendam

1.69

allows per match

FC Eindhoven

1.45

FC Volendam

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw

61%

FC Eindhoven or FC Volendam

76%

Draw or FC Volendam

63%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

18%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

79%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

45%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

20%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

79%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

46%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

49%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.45 · 149 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.61 + FC Volendam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Volendam attack 1.69 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more

37%

level

24%

FC Volendam scores more

39%

FC Volendam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

D. Kasius

FC Volendam · D

7.7

Match Events

19'

Z. El Azzouzi↳ M. van de Ven

49'

Dico Jap Tjong

54'

Hugo Botermans

62'

D. Jap Tjong

64'

M. Kaars← I. El Kadiri

65'

J. Dahlhaus← J. Bourdouxhe

65'

M. van Rosmalen← J. Donkor

71'

M. Tol← D. Kasius

71'

S. Ben Sallam← F. Antonucci

72'

B. De Keersmaecker← H. Botermans

75'

Jasper Dahlhaus

75'

Jort van der Sande

81'

Samir Ben Sallam

81'

G. Iatroudis← Z. El Azzouzi

90'

Martijn Kaars

90'

B. Biemans← D. Jap Tjong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots15

4Corners7

20Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots15

4On Target3

2Off Target5

1Blocked7

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

269Total Passes518

197Accurate Passes442

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls6

4Yellow Cards2

7Offsides3