FC Eindhoven 2–2 FC Volendam: Result & Stats

FC Eindhoven

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FC Volendam

J. Sleegers 90+3', 45+1' (pen)

D. van Mieghem 40'

D. Mirani 12'

8/6/2021

Eerste Divisie · Round 1Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FC Eindhoven37%

×Draw24%

FC Volendam39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EindhovenExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.57

FC Eindhoven

1.54

FC Volendam

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 91 away

1.61

creates per match

1.69

1.45

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FC Eindhoven

1.61

FC Volendam

1.69

allows per match

FC Eindhoven

1.45

FC Volendam

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw

61%

FC Eindhoven or FC Volendam

76%

Draw or FC Volendam

63%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

18%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

79%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

45%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

20%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

79%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

46%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

49%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.45 · 149 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.46 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.61 + FC Volendam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Volendam attack 1.69 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more

37%

level

24%

FC Volendam scores more

39%

FC Volendam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Sleegers

FC Eindhoven · F

8.7

Match Events

12'

D. Mirani↳ A. Plat

15'

J. Borgmans← N. Bertrams

16'

Alex Plat

40'

D. van Mieghem

45+1'

J. SleegersPenalty

53'

John Hilton

57'

E. Hernández← M. van Rosmalen

61'

K. Visser← C. Twigt

65'

M. Kaars← I. El Kadiri

79'

J. Flint← J. Hilton

79'

S. Ben Sallam← M. Eerdhuijzen

81'

K. Oostenbrink← J. van Son

81'

N. Azzagari← D. de Meij

90+3'

J. Sleegers↳ M. Peijnenburg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots20

4Corners6

16Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots20

8On Target8

4Off Target7

0Blocked5

7Inside Box12

5Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

348Total Passes421

214Accurate Passes294

61%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1