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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
2/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

FC ST. Gallen54%
×Draw20%
FC Winterthur26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
2.26
FC Winterthur
1.54

FC ST. Gallen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.31
FC Winterthur
1.79

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.28
FC Winterthur
2.21

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.23scores less
FC Winterthur-0.01on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
74%
FC ST. Gallen or FC Winterthur
80%
Draw or FC Winterthur
46%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
33%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
89%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
66%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
39%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
79%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
45%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
67%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.31 + FC Winterthur defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.26

FC Winterthur attack 1.79 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
54%
level
20%
FC Winterthur scores more
26%

FC ST. Gallen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Winterthur

FC ST. Gallen and FC Winterthur drew 2-2 in Super League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at kybunpark in St. Gallen.