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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion — Super League 2018

FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Sion
FC Sion
D. Besio 90'
L. Gortler 67'
A. Balde 51'
Y. Chouaref 21'
12/16/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

FC ST. Gallen45%
×Draw23%
FC Sion31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC ST. Gallen
1.73
FC Sion
1.41

FC ST. Gallen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

FC ST. Gallen
2.06
FC Sion
1.44

allows per match

FC ST. Gallen
1.37
FC Sion
1.41

finishing

FC ST. Gallen-0.33scores less
FC Sion+0.13scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC ST. Gallen ↓

FC Sion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC ST. Gallen or draw
69%
FC ST. Gallen or FC Sion
77%
Draw or FC Sion
55%

Winning margin

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
24%
FC Sion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
82%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
52%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
25%
FC Sion 1+ goals
76%
FC Sion 2+ goals
41%
FC Sion 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
59%
FC Sion (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC ST. Gallen at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.37 · 26 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC ST. Gallen attack 2.06 + FC Sion defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Sion attack 1.44 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC ST. Gallen scores more
45%
level
23%
FC Sion scores more
31%

FC ST. Gallen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC ST. Gallen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
L. GortlerFC ST. GallenFC ST. Gallen · M
8.2

Match Events

21'
Y. Chouaref↳ T. Berdayes
30'
Liam Scott Chipperfield
36'
Rilind NivokaziPenalty cancelled
51'
A. Balde↳ A. Vogt
53'
Aliou BaldeGoal confirmed
59'
Behar Neziri
67'
L. Gortler↳ T. Gaal
68'
M. Efekele← A. Vogt
72'
B. Kololli← T. Berdayes
72'
D. Rrudhani← L. Chipperfield
79'
N. Weibel← L. Gortler
79'
D. Besio← A. Balde
83'
D. Rodrigues← Baltazar
83'
T. Bouchlarhem← Y. Chouaref
89'
A. Vallci← B. Neziri
89'
J. Ruiz← C. Witzig
90'
W. Boteli← A. Kabacalman
90'
D. Besio

Possession

48%FC

Shots

22FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
48%Possession52%
22Total Shots10
2.78Expected Goals (xG)0.67
9Corners4
17Fouls14
Shots
22Total Shots10
9On Target3
6Off Target7
7Blocked0
14Inside Box6
8Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
351Total Passes386
289Accurate Passes285
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
17Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 3-1 in Super League on December 16, 2025.

Goals: Y. Chouaref (21'), A. Balde (51'), L. Gortler (67'), D. Besio (90').

FC Sion controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 22.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.