FC Sion 3–2 FC ST. Gallen: Result & Stats

FC Sion

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

FC ST. Gallen

R. Nivokazi 45', 42'

A. Kabacalman 9' (pen)

M. Stevanovic 89'

C. Boukhalfa 5' (pen)

10/28/2025

Super League · Round 11Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Sion46%

×Draw23%

FC ST. Gallen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SionExpected goals in this matchFC ST. Gallen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.40

FC Sion

1.77

FC ST. Gallen

1.40

FC Sion creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

1.54

creates per match

1.57

1.23

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

FC Sion

1.54

FC ST. Gallen

1.57

allows per match

FC Sion

1.23

FC ST. Gallen

1.99

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more

FC ST. Gallen+0.06on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC ST. Gallen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw

69%

FC Sion or FC ST. Gallen

77%

Draw or FC ST. Gallen

54%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+

25%

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals

83%

FC Sion 2+ goals

53%

FC Sion 3+ goals

26%

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

75%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

41%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)

60%

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.99 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.57 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Sion scores more

46%

level

23%

FC ST. Gallen scores more

31%

FC Sion at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

R. Nivokazi

FC Sion · F

7.9

Match Events

5'

C. BoukhalfaPenalty

7'

Rilind NivokaziPenalty confirmed

8'

Jozo Stanić

9'

A. KabacalmanPenalty

27'

Carlo Boukhalfa

38'

Alessandro Vogt

42'

R. Nivokazi

45'

R. Nivokazi↳ N. Hefti

52'

Kreshnik Hajrizi

52'

Lukas Görtler

58'

M. Efekele← A. Balde

58'

S. Vladi← A. Vogt

71'

T. Bouchlarhem← L. Chipperfield

71'

D. Rrudhani← T. Berdayes

72'

J. Lukembila← Y. Chouaref

72'

H. Vandermersch← C. Boukhalfa

72'

T. Ouattara← C. Okoroji

79'

N. Sow← R. Nivokazi

80'

Donat Rrudhani

85'

L. Diack← A. Kabacalman

86'

M. Stevanovic← C. Witzig

89'

M. Stevanovic

90+5'

Tiemoko Ouattara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots7

6Corners1

12Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots7

5On Target4

9Off Target2

6Blocked1

14Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

367Total Passes467

278Accurate Passes392

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3