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FC Kaiserslautern vs FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Kaiserslautern
FC Kaiserslautern
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
5/4/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern46%
×Draw23%
FC Magdeburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Kaiserslautern
1.81
FC Magdeburg
1.46

FC Kaiserslautern creates 24% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 84 away

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern
1.87
FC Magdeburg
1.52

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern
1.41
FC Magdeburg
1.76

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par
FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw
69%
FC Kaiserslautern or FC Magdeburg
77%
Draw or FC Magdeburg
54%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
25%
FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
84%
FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
54%
FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
27%
FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
77%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
43%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
59%
FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Magdeburg attack 1.52 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more
46%
level
23%
FC Magdeburg scores more
31%

FC Kaiserslautern at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 FC Magdeburg

FC Kaiserslautern beat FC Magdeburg 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.