1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–3 1. FC Magdeburg

1. FC Kaiserslautern

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

1. FC Magdeburg

M. Ritter 56' (pen)

D. Hanslik 53'

A. Nollenberger 49'

M. Zukowski 35'

B. Atik 22'

12/20/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 17Fritz Walter Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern37%

×Draw20%

1. FC Magdeburg43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this match1. FC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.25

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2.08

1. FC Magdeburg

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.23

creates per match

2.56

1.93

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2.23

1. FC Magdeburg

2.56

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.93

1. FC Magdeburg

1.93

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.23scores less

1. FC Magdeburg+0.04on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw

57%

1. FC Kaiserslautern or 1. FC Magdeburg

80%

Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg

63%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

20%

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

87%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

61%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

34%

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

89%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

65%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

46%

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.93 · 5 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.93 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 2.23 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.08

1. FC Magdeburg attack 2.56 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

37%

level

20%

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

43%

1. FC Magdeburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

B. Atik

1. FC Magdeburg · F

7.9

Match Events

22'

27'

29'

33'

35'

43'

46'

49'

A. Nollenberger↳ B. Atik

53'

D. Hanslik↳ N. Skytta

56'

M. RitterPenalty

64'

H. Bockhorn← P. Hercher

64'

D. Stalmach← S. Gnaka

64'

65'

70'

73'

73'

76'

T. Raschl← L. Robinson

77'

R. Ghrieb← B. Atik

87'

D. Abiama← P. Joly

87'

N. Gibs← F. Kunze

89'

90+1'

90+7'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.1.

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots20

2.48Expected Goals (xG)2.99

4Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots20

4On Target10

9Off Target9

2Blocked1

12Inside Box15

3Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

368Total Passes339

271Accurate Passes259

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

6Yellow Cards5

2Offsides3