1. FC Magdeburg 2–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

1. FC Kaiserslautern

B. Atik 43', 29'

4/6/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Avnet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg42%

×Draw25%

1. FC Kaiserslautern33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this match1. FC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.32

1. FC Magdeburg

1.53

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.32

1. FC Magdeburg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 69 away

1.38

creates per match

1.23

1.42

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.38

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.23

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.42

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

1. FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

67%

1. FC Magdeburg or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

75%

Draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

58%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

21%

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

78%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

45%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

20%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

73%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

38%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

56%

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.23 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

42%

level

25%

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

33%

1. FC Magdeburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

B. Atik

1. FC Magdeburg · F

8.7

Match Events

29'

B. Atik↳ L. Burcu

43'

B. Atik↳ A. Nollenberger

45+1'

Livan Burcu

54'

Dominik Reimann

63'

E. Wekesser← F. Kleinhansl

63'

J. Heuer← T. Breithaupt

63'

J. Gyamerah← J. Zimmer

71'

X. Amaechi← L. Burcu

72'

G. Ranos← M. Ritter

75'

Kenny Prince Redondo

79'

Bryan Teixeira← B. Atik

82'

F. Alidou← M. Bauer

87'

P. Nadjombe← P. Hercher

87'

P. Pfeiffer← T. Müller

87'

F. Michel← A. Ahl-Holmström

90+4'

Xavier Amaechi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.1.

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots17

3Corners5

18Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots17

4On Target2

2Off Target6

1Blocked9

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

404Total Passes460

333Accurate Passes390

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0