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1. FC Kaiserslautern vs 1. FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
R. Ache 68'
B. Tomiak 32' (pen)
P. Hercher 13'
S. Loric 11'
11/3/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 11Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern46%
×Draw23%
1. FC Magdeburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.81
1. FC Magdeburg
1.46

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 24% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 84 away

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg
1.52

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.41
1. FC Magdeburg
1.76

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par
1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw
69%
1. FC Kaiserslautern or 1. FC Magdeburg
77%
Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg
54%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
25%
1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
84%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
54%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
27%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
77%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
43%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
59%
1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.52 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
46%
level
23%
1. FC Magdeburg scores more
31%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
F. Kleinhansl1. FC Kaiserslautern1. FC Kaiserslautern · M
7.7

Match Events

11'
S. Loric↳ M. Kaars
13'
P. Hercher↳ M. Mathisen
30'
Falko Michel
32'
B. TomiakPenalty
36'
Falko Michel
36'
Marcus Mathisen
36'
Falko Michel
41'
A. Hoti← A. Nollenberger
51'
Boris Tomiak
52'
Martijn Kaars
63'
A. Opoku← A. Aremu
68'
R. Ache↳ L. Sirch
69'
C. Krempicki← S. Gnaka
77'
J. Gyamerah← F. Ronstadt
77'
J. Mause← D. Hanslik
78'
X. Amaechi← P. Hercher
78'
A. El-Zein← L. Burcu
89'
K. Redondo← D. Yokota
90'
Jan Elvedi
90+3'
Martijn Kaars
90+3'
Martijn Kaars

Possession

70%1.

Shots

221.

Pass accuracy

55%1.

Statistics

1.1.
Overview
70%Possession30%
22Total Shots8
11Corners1
10Fouls16
Shots
22Total Shots8
6On Target4
10Off Target3
6Blocked1
16Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
569Total Passes251
495Accurate Passes177
87%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls16
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs 1. FC Magdeburg

1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1. FC Magdeburg drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on November 3, 2024.

Goals: S. Loric (11'), P. Hercher (13'), B. Tomiak (32' pen), R. Ache (68').

1. FC Kaiserslautern controlled possession (70%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.