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FC Juarez vs Puebla — Liga MX 2018

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
Preview
03:00
Puebla
Puebla
7/18/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1
Big match
43%
FC Juarez
model favours
43%26%31%

Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

FC Juarez43%
×Draw26%
Puebla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.47
Puebla
1.22

FC Juarez creates 20% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 141 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.27
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
Puebla
1.67

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
69%
FC Juarez or Puebla
74%
Draw or Puebla
57%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
21%
Puebla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
77%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
43%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
18%
Puebla 1+ goals
70%
Puebla 2+ goals
34%
Puebla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
58%
Puebla (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.27 + Puebla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Puebla attack 1.05 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Juarez scores more
43%
level
26%
Puebla scores more
31%

FC Juarez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Puebla outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Juarez
Attack-heavy
Puebla
Balanced
47%Possession51%
79%Pass accuracy79%
14.6Shots12.9
2.02xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC JuarezPuebla

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
FC Juarez
4
Draws
3
Puebla
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 60%
1–14–42–03–24–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Juarez
DWDW
Puebla
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Juarez vs Puebla — Match Preview

FC Juarez face Puebla on July 18, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.