FC Fredericia 3–3 FC Copenhagen: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

FC Copenhagen

F. Etim 83', 1'

J. Lindekilde 24'

J. Larsson 87' (pen)

M. Madsen 32'

A. Cornelius 11'

5/3/2026

Superliga · Relegation Group - 30Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Fredericia31%

×Draw23%

FC Copenhagen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchFC Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.74

FC Fredericia

1.39

FC Copenhagen

1.74

FC Copenhagen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.40

creates per match

1.69

1.79

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.40

FC Copenhagen

1.69

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.79

FC Copenhagen

1.38

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

FC Fredericia-0.13scores less

FC Copenhagen+0.67scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

FC Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

54%

FC Fredericia or FC Copenhagen

77%

Draw or FC Copenhagen

69%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

14%

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

75%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

40%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

16%

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

82%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

52%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

40%

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.40 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Copenhagen attack 1.69 + FC Fredericia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

31%

level

23%

FC Copenhagen scores more

46%

FC Copenhagen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

F. Etim

FC Fredericia · F

9.3

Match Events

-5'

Elias Achouri

1'

F. Etim↳ A. Nygaard

11'

A. Cornelius↳ M. Elyounoussi

24'

J. Lindekilde↳ D. F. Kristjansson

25'

Jonatan LindekildeGoal confirmed

32'

45+1'

46'

46'

65'

V. Dadason← A. Cornelius

69'

Frederik Rieper

74'

G. Marcussen← S. Johannesen

74'

74'

82'

83'

87'

J. LarssonPenalty

88'

P. Egelund← J. Lindekilde

88'

V. Claesson← M. Lopez

88'

G. Vianney← M. Madsen

90+5'

Geovanni Vianney

90+2'

Thomas Delaney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots19

3.01Expected Goals (xG)2.39

6Corners4

14Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots19

6On Target5

6Off Target7

4Blocked7

15Inside Box9

1Outside Box10

Passing

43%Possession57%

295Total Passes406

225Accurate Passes336

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23

Discipline

14Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4