FC Copenhagen 1–2 FC Fredericia: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

FC Fredericia

Y. Moukoko 90' (pen)

F. Etim 38'

S. Johannesen 23'

3/22/2026

Superliga · Relegation Group - 24Parken Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FC Copenhagen63%

×Draw19%

FC Fredericia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFC Fredericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.21

FC Copenhagen

2.38

FC Fredericia

1.21

FC Copenhagen creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

2.28

creates per match

1.26

1.17

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.28

FC Fredericia

1.26

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.17

FC Fredericia

2.47

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

FC Copenhagen-0.15scores less

FC Fredericia+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

FC Fredericia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

82%

FC Copenhagen or FC Fredericia

81%

Draw or FC Fredericia

37%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

41%

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

91%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

68%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

42%

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

70%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

34%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

78%

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.47 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.28 + FC Fredericia defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.38

FC Fredericia attack 1.26 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

63%

level

19%

FC Fredericia scores more

18%

FC Copenhagen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

E. Green

FC Fredericia · G

9.9

Match Events

23'

S. Johannesen↳ F. Etim

36'

Svenn Crone

38'

F. Etim↳ F. Winther

45+3'

Oliver Højer

46'

Robert← K. Myrie

46'

M. Madsen← O. Hojer

62'

M. Opondo← S. Johannesen

62'

E. Simonsen← J. Lindekilde

62'

O. Buch← G. Marcussen

63'

V. Claesson← J. Larsson

68'

K. Pedersen← D. F. Kristjansson

77'

V. Dadason← T. Delaney

83'

Mohamed ElyounoussiGoal cancelled

88'

G. Vianney← M. Elyounoussi

90+5'

Svenn Crone

90+5'

Svenn Crone

90'

A. Dahl← F. Winther

90'

Y. MoukokoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

67%Possession33%

33Total Shots8

5.59Expected Goals (xG)1.26

14Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

33Total Shots8

11On Target3

9Off Target4

13Blocked1

22Inside Box4

11Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

598Total Passes296

496Accurate Passes218

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

3.29Goals Prevented3.29

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0