FC Fredericia 0–2 FC Copenhagen: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Copenhagen

J. Larsson 69'

E. Achouri 34'

8/1/2025

Superliga · Round 3Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Fredericia32%

×Draw24%

FC Copenhagen44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchFC Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.67

FC Fredericia

1.39

FC Copenhagen

1.67

FC Copenhagen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

1.63

1.72

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.43

FC Copenhagen

1.63

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.72

FC Copenhagen

1.34

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

FC Fredericia-0.10scores less

FC Copenhagen+0.62scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

FC Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

56%

FC Fredericia or FC Copenhagen

76%

Draw or FC Copenhagen

68%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

14%

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

75%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

40%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

16%

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

81%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

50%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

42%

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.72 · 15 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.43 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Copenhagen attack 1.63 + FC Fredericia defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

32%

level

24%

FC Copenhagen scores more

44%

FC Copenhagen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Gabriel Pereira

FC Copenhagen · D

8.2

Match Events

34'

E. Achouri↳ T. Delaney

56'

V. Claesson← Y. Moukoko

64'

L. Lerager← T. Delaney

64'

R. Huescas← Y. Zague

69'

J. Larsson↳ M. Mattsson

76'

A. Nygaard← J. Kudsk

76'

W. Madsen← A. Pyndt

76'

A. Dahl← S. Crone

76'

A. Mucolli← E. Simonsen

80'

Robert← E. Achouri

80'

W. Clem← M. Elyounoussi

84'

E. Dall← P. Egelund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots17

0.46Expected Goals (xG)1.63

5Corners8

5Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

3Inside Box11

6Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

405Total Passes630

340Accurate Passes570

84%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls10

1Offsides2