FC Copenhagen 3–2 FC Fredericia: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC Fredericia

J. Suzuki 77'

Y. Moukoko 55' (pen)

V. Claesson 21'

O. Buch 83'

G. Marcussen 49' (pen)

11/1/2025

Superliga · Round 14Parken Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Copenhagen62%

×Draw19%

FC Fredericia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFC Fredericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.25

FC Copenhagen

2.39

FC Fredericia

1.25

FC Copenhagen creates 91% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.26

creates per match

1.28

1.21

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.26

FC Fredericia

1.28

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.21

FC Fredericia

2.53

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

FC Copenhagen-0.07on par

FC Fredericia+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

FC Fredericia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

81%

FC Copenhagen or FC Fredericia

81%

Draw or FC Fredericia

38%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

40%

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

91%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

69%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

42%

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

71%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

36%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

77%

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.21 · 16 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.26 + FC Fredericia defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.39

FC Fredericia attack 1.28 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

62%

level

19%

FC Fredericia scores more

19%

FC Copenhagen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Elyounoussi

FC Copenhagen · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

V. Claesson↳ E. Achouri

49'

G. MarcussenPenalty

54'

Moses Opondo

55'

Y. MoukokoPenalty

59'

Mohamed Elyounoussi

61'

J. Larsson← Robert

67'

D. F. Kristjansson← E. Simonsen

67'

A. Mucolli← A. Pyndt

69'

W. Clem← E. Achouri

69'

V. Dadason← Y. Moukoko

76'

A. Cornelius← V. Claesson

76'

M. Madsen← M. Lopez

77'

J. Suzuki↳ M. Elyounoussi

79'

S. Johannesen← G. Marcussen

79'

E. Dall← M. Opondo

83'

O. Buch↳ E. Dall

88'

A. Nygaard← J. Jessen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots10

2.06Expected Goals (xG)1.73

2Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots10

4On Target5

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

600Total Passes334

521Accurate Passes247

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0