FBC Melgar 2–0 Cienciano: Result & Stats

FBC Melgar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cienciano

J. De Santis 90'

C. Bordacahar 28'

1/31/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FBC Melgar49%

×Draw25%

Cienciano27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC MelgarExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.13

FBC Melgar

1.62

Cienciano

1.13

FBC Melgar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.19

1.07

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

FBC Melgar

1.83

Cienciano

1.19

allows per match

FBC Melgar

1.07

Cienciano

1.41

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.37scores more

Cienciano+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw

73%

FBC Melgar or Cienciano

75%

Draw or Cienciano

51%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

25%

Cienciano wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

80%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

48%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

22%

Cienciano 1+ goals

68%

Cienciano 2+ goals

31%

Cienciano 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

65%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.83 + Cienciano defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cienciano attack 1.19 + FBC Melgar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FBC Melgar scores more

49%

level

25%

Cienciano scores more

27%

FBC Melgar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

M. Lazo

FBC Melgar · D

8.7

Match Events

28'

C. Bordacahar↳ M. Lazo

55'

C. Bordacahar

63'

L. Guzman← C. Bordacahar

64'

M. Lazo

64'

N. Bandiera← A. Yovera

78'

G. Aguirre← G. Barreto

78'

A. Rojas← M. Succar

79'

W. Tandazo

82'

J. De Santis← P. Erustes

82'

J. Salas← B. Cuesta

87'

Y. Gamero← W. Tandazo

87'

N. Figueroa← J. Vidales

90'

J. De Santis↳ M. Zegarra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FBCCienciano

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots13

9Corners9

17Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots13

7On Target3

2Off Target9

2Blocked1

10Inside Box9

1Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

300Total Passes314

218Accurate Passes227

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

5Offsides1

Primera División: FBC Melgar 2–0 Cienciano

FBC Melgar beat Cienciano 2-0 in Primera División on January 31, 2026.

Goals: C. Bordacahar (28'), J. De Santis (90').

Cienciano controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi in Arequipa.

FBC Melgar vs Cienciano — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: FBC Melgar 2–0 Cienciano