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Cienciano vs FBC Melgar — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Cienciano
Cienciano
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
K. Becerra 51'
A. Ramos 72'
3/6/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Qualification Round 1Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cienciano61%
×Draw24%
FBC Melgar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.69
FBC Melgar
0.69

Cienciano creates 145% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.50
FBC Melgar
0.75

allows per match

Cienciano
0.63
FBC Melgar
1.88

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
85%
Cienciano or FBC Melgar
76%
Draw or FBC Melgar
39%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
35%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
82%
Cienciano 2+ goals
50%
Cienciano 3+ goals
24%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
50%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
15%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
80%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.50 + FBC Melgar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

FBC Melgar attack 0.75 + Cienciano defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cienciano scores more
61%
level
24%
FBC Melgar scores more
15%

Cienciano at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. AmondarainCiencianoCienciano · D
8.3

Match Events

31'
Gerson Barreto
34'
Carlos Cáceda
46'
S. D. Arias Fierro← G. Barreto
51'
K. Becerra↳ C. Garces
58'
M. Zegarra← A. Deneumostier
58'
J. Vidales← F. Zanelatto
66'
R. Aguilar← C. Nunez
67'
Carlos Garcés
67'
Javier Salas
70'
M. Succar← C. Garces
70'
L. Guzman← N. Quagliata
72'
A. Ramos
77'
Santiago Arias
78'
J. De Santis← C. Bordacahar
78'
P. Erustes← A. Ramos
90'
G. Aguirre← N. Bandiera

Possession

51%Cienciano

Shots

18Cienciano

Pass accuracy

51%Cienciano

Statistics

CiencianoFBC
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots7
1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.38
6Corners3
10Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots7
3On Target3
9Off Target3
6Blocked1
8Inside Box5
10Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
334Total Passes349
247Accurate Passes248
74%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
0.46Goals Prevented0.46
Discipline
10Fouls8
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Cienciano vs FBC Melgar

Cienciano and FBC Melgar drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 6, 2026.

Goals: K. Becerra (51'), A. Ramos (72').

Cienciano controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.