FBC Melgar 2–0 Cienciano: Result & Stats

FBC Melgar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cienciano

N. Quagliata 66'

J. Vidales 48'

10/3/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FBC Melgar48%

×Draw25%

Cienciano27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC MelgarExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.15

FBC Melgar

1.63

Cienciano

1.15

FBC Melgar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.83

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

FBC Melgar

1.83

Cienciano

1.23

allows per match

FBC Melgar

1.07

Cienciano

1.42

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.37scores more

Cienciano+0.02on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw

73%

FBC Melgar or Cienciano

75%

Draw or Cienciano

52%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

25%

Cienciano wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

80%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

48%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

22%

Cienciano 1+ goals

68%

Cienciano 2+ goals

32%

Cienciano 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

64%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.83 + Cienciano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cienciano attack 1.23 + FBC Melgar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FBC Melgar scores more

48%

level

25%

Cienciano scores more

27%

FBC Melgar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Vidales

FBC Melgar · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Beto Da Silva

38'

Pier Barrios

46'

J. Vidales← P. Barrios

48'

J. Vidales↳ L. Guzman

63'

C. Souza Espana← G. Aguirre

65'

N. Cabanillas← L. Guzman

66'

N. Quagliata↳ J. Vidales

71'

T. Martinez← H. Orzan

74'

Leonel González

76'

Maximiliano Amondarain

76'

L. E. Benites Vargas← A. Hohberg

77'

R. Palomino← M. Amondarain

81'

Agustín González

82'

E. Ramos← J. D'Arrigo

82'

G. Bernaola← N. Quagliata

85'

J. Ortiz← A. Gonzalez

85'

A. Ramua← C. Neira

89'

Carlos Garcés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FBCCienciano

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots15

1.53Expected Goals (xG)0.95

4Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots15

7On Target4

2Off Target7

1Blocked4

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box11

Passing

46%Possession54%

365Total Passes418

274Accurate Passes326

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

5Offsides0