Cienciano vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 12+ matches
Cienciano52%
FBC Melgar25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cienciano creates 54% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cienciano ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cienciano at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 12 matches
FBC Melgar away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cienciano attack 1.95 + FBC Melgar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.79
FBC Melgar attack 1.46 + Cienciano defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Cienciano at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FBC Melgar substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting CristalCiencianoFBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cienciano host FBC Melgar on Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 02:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Primera División: Cienciano 1–2 FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar beat Cienciano 2-1 in Primera División on May 11, 2025.
Goals: M. Lazo (3' o.g.), P. Liza (20'), K. G. Cabrera Nakamura (84' pen).
Cienciano controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 15.
The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.