Farense 0–2 Benfica: Result & Stats

Farense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Benfica

F. Ivanovic 56'

R. Rios 11'

12/17/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Farense28%

×Draw21%

Benfica50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

2.06

Farense

1.51

Benfica

2.06

Benfica creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

2.40

creates per match

1.92

2.20

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Farense

2.40

Benfica

1.92

allows per match

Farense

2.20

Benfica

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Farense or draw

50%

Farense or Benfica

79%

Draw or Benfica

72%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

13%

Benfica wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

78%

Farense 2+ goals

44%

Farense 3+ goals

19%

Benfica 1+ goals

87%

Benfica 2+ goals

61%

Benfica 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

36%

Benfica (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 2.40 + Benfica defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Benfica attack 1.92 + Farense defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Farense scores more

28%

level

21%

Benfica scores more

50%

Benfica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Rios

Benfica · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

R. Rios↳ G. Sudakov

29'

Rafinha

36'

F. Aursnes← G. Sudakov

46'

Franco Romero

46'

F. Romero← Ruben

46'

A. Trubin← S. Soares

48'

Franco RomeroCard reviewed

56'

F. Ivanovic

63'

Dario Miranda← R. Costa

63'

D. Poveda← F. Delgado

64'

Gio Almeida

67'

Duarte Furtado

69'

B. Almeida← M. Menino

73'

D. Dorregaray← Jaiminho

82'

J. Rego← A. Schjelderup

85'

Gianluca Prestianni

85'

Richard Ríos

88'

D. Banjaqui← G. Prestianni

90+7'

Franco RomeroGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarenseBenfica

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots13

5Corners10

18Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

269Total Passes479

193Accurate Passes387

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Taça de Portugal: Farense 0–2 Benfica

Benfica beat Farense 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on December 17, 2025.

Goals: R. Rios (11'), F. Ivanovic (56').

Benfica controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

Farense vs Benfica — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Taça de Portugal: Farense 0–2 Benfica