Farense 1–2 Benfica: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Farense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Benfica

Darío Poveda 15'

V. Pavlidis 54'

Álvaro Fernández 21'

11/2/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 10Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Farense21%

×Draw24%

Benfica55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.69

Farense

0.93

Benfica

1.69

Benfica creates 82% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 136 away

1.04

creates per match

2.07

1.31

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Farense

1.04

Benfica

2.07

allows per match

Farense

1.31

Benfica

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Farense or draw

45%

Farense or Benfica

76%

Draw or Benfica

79%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

7%

Benfica wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

61%

Farense 2+ goals

24%

Farense 3+ goals

7%

Benfica 1+ goals

82%

Benfica 2+ goals

50%

Benfica 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

27%

Benfica (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.81 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.04 + Benfica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Benfica attack 2.07 + Farense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Farense scores more

21%

level

24%

Benfica scores more

55%

Benfica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Álvaro Fernández

Benfica · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

Darío Poveda↳ Pastor

21'

Álvaro Fernández↳ K. Aktürkoğlu

46'

J. Beste← A. Bah

52'

Cuba← Darío Poveda

54'

V. Pavlidis

63'

Geovanny Almeida← Miguel Menino

63'

Rafael Barbosa← Cláudio Falcão

63'

Álex Bermejo← Elves Baldé

75'

Álex Millán← Artur Jorge

76'

Z. Amdouni← K. Aktürkoğlu

84'

Neto

87'

Arthur Cabral← V. Pavlidis

87'

A. Schjelderup← Á. Di María

90+1'

Renato Sanches← O. Kökçü

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarenseBenfica

Overview

30%Possession70%

9Total Shots18

0.75Expected Goals (xG)1.50

3Corners8

10Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots18

4On Target7

3Off Target6

2Blocked5

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box10

Passing

30%Possession70%

284Total Passes670

204Accurate Passes593

72%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

10Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides4