Benfica 3–2 Farense: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Benfica

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Farense

K. Aktürkoğlu 54', 7'

V. Pavlidis 23'

Rony Lopes 63'

Tomás Ribeiro 43'

4/2/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 27Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Benfica65%

×Draw20%

Farense15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchFarense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.86

Benfica

2.08

Farense

0.86

Benfica creates 142% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 51 away

2.63

creates per match

0.96

0.77

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Benfica

2.63

Farense

0.96

allows per match

Benfica

0.77

Farense

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Farense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

85%

Benfica or Farense

80%

Draw or Farense

35%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

41%

Farense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

87%

Benfica 2+ goals

61%

Benfica 3+ goals

34%

Farense 1+ goals

58%

Farense 2+ goals

21%

Farense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

82%

Farense (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.77 · 136 matches

Farense away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.63 + Farense defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.08

Farense attack 0.96 + Benfica defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Benfica scores more

65%

level

20%

Farense scores more

15%

Benfica at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Aktürkoğlu

Benfica · F

9.2

Match Events

7'

K. Aktürkoğlu↳ F. Aursnes

23'

V. Pavlidis↳ K. Aktürkoğlu

43'

Tomás Ribeiro

46'

L. Barreiro← Renato Sanches

54'

K. Aktürkoğlu↳ V. Pavlidis

63'

Rony Lopes↳ Derick Poloni

67'

Rui Costa← Miguel Menino

67'

Filipe Soares← Zé Carlos

75'

A. Schjelderup← Á. Di María

75'

A. Belotti← V. Pavlidis

83'

83'

83'

89'

89'

Z. Amdouni← K. Aktürkoğlu

90+2'

Anatoliy Trubin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BenficaFarense

Overview

71%Possession29%

13Total Shots12

2.34Expected Goals (xG)1.77

5Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots12

7On Target6

5Off Target4

1Blocked2

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

570Total Passes218

492Accurate Passes148

86%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-0.74Goals Prevented-0.74

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2