Farense 1–3 Benfica: Result & Stats

Farense

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Benfica

Tomané 7'

A. Bah 62'

Arthur Cabral 58'

A. Schjelderup 56'

1/14/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Farense28%

×Draw21%

Benfica50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

2.06

Farense

1.51

Benfica

2.06

Benfica creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

2.40

creates per match

1.92

2.20

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Farense

2.40

Benfica

1.92

allows per match

Farense

2.20

Benfica

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Farense or draw

50%

Farense or Benfica

79%

Draw or Benfica

72%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

13%

Benfica wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

78%

Farense 2+ goals

44%

Farense 3+ goals

19%

Benfica 1+ goals

87%

Benfica 2+ goals

61%

Benfica 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

36%

Benfica (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 2.40 + Benfica defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Benfica attack 1.92 + Farense defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Farense scores more

28%

level

21%

Benfica scores more

50%

Benfica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Schjelderup

Benfica · F

7.9

Match Events

7'

Tomané

34'

André Seruca← Neto

41'

Raúl Silva

41'

Z. Amdouni← Á. Di María

45+4'

56'

58'

62'

66'

Elves Baldé← Marco Matias

66'

Darío Poveda← M. Merghem

66'

Jaime Pinto← Tomané

74'

V. Pavlidis← Arthur Cabral

75'

K. Aktürkoğlu← A. Schjelderup

77'

Filipe Soares← André Seruca

88'

B. Rollheiser← F. Aursnes

88'

A. Bajrami← Álvaro Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FarenseBenfica

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots14

2Corners6

17Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target4

2Off Target8

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

1Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

275Total Passes540

188Accurate Passes449

68%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2