Sportivo Barracas 0–3 Claypole: Result & Stats

Sportivo Barracas

FT

0 – 3

Claypole

4/28/2014

Primera D · Round 32Estadio República de Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sportivo Barracas34%

×Draw28%

Claypole37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo BarracasExpected goals in this matchClaypole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.19

Sportivo Barracas

1.13

Claypole

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.36

creates per match

1.11

1.27

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Sportivo Barracas

1.36

Claypole

1.11

allows per match

Sportivo Barracas

1.27

Claypole

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Barracas ↓

Claypole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Barracas or draw

63%

Sportivo Barracas or Claypole

72%

Draw or Claypole

66%

Winning margin

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+

14%

Claypole wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals

68%

Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals

31%

Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals

11%

Claypole 1+ goals

70%

Claypole 2+ goals

33%

Claypole 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)

48%

Claypole (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Barracas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Claypole away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.36 + Claypole defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Claypole attack 1.11 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportivo Barracas scores more

34%

level

28%

Claypole scores more

37%

Claypole at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff