Eyüpspor 2–2 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats | League #203

Eyüpspor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Beşiktaş

E. Akbaba 65' (pen)

U. Bozok 57'

C. Under 76'

O. Kokcu 6'

1/26/2026

League #203 · Round 19Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Eyüpspor32%

×Draw23%

Beşiktaş44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EyüpsporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.71

Eyüpspor

1.43

Beşiktaş

1.71

Beşiktaş creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.27

creates per match

1.53

1.88

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Eyüpspor

1.27

Beşiktaş

1.53

allows per match

Eyüpspor

1.88

Beşiktaş

1.59

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

Eyüpspor-0.27scores less

Beşiktaş-0.64scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw

56%

Eyüpspor or Beşiktaş

77%

Draw or Beşiktaş

68%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

15%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

76%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

42%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

17%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

82%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

51%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

42%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.88 · 7 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.59 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.27 + Beşiktaş defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Beşiktaş attack 1.53 + Eyüpspor defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eyüpspor scores more

32%

level

23%

Beşiktaş scores more

44%

Beşiktaş at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

U. Bozok

Eyüpspor · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Gilbert Mendy

6'

O. Kokcu

24'

Umut BozokGoal cancelled

46'

E. Akbaba← M. Legowski

57'

U. Bozok↳ J. Onguene

61'

S. Ucan← Jota Silva

61'

C. Under← V. Cerny

61'

M. Hekimoglu← M. Rashica

65'

E. AkbabaPenalty

73'

P. O. Ampem← L. Pintor

76'

79'

82'

86'

86'

87'

89'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EyüpsporBeşiktaş

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots17

1.86Expected Goals (xG)1.91

3Corners5

10Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots17

4On Target9

8Off Target5

3Blocked3

13Inside Box10

2Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

319Total Passes476

233Accurate Passes386

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

-0.88Goals Prevented-0.88

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş

Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş drew 2-2 in League #203 on January 26, 2026.

Goals: O. Kokcu (6'), U. Bozok (57'), E. Akbaba (65' pen), C. Under (76').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 15.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Istanbul.

Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş