Beşiktaş 2–1 Eyüpspor: Result & Stats | League #203

Beşiktaş

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eyüpspor

C. Immobile 90+3' (pen)

M. Rashica 20'

E. Akbaba 64' (pen)

9/22/2024

League #203 · Round 6Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Beşiktaş63%

×Draw19%

Eyüpspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchEyüpspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.10

Beşiktaş

2.26

Eyüpspor

1.10

Beşiktaş creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.81

creates per match

1.28

0.93

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.81

Eyüpspor

1.28

allows per match

Beşiktaş

0.93

Eyüpspor

2.71

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Beşiktaş-0.31scores less

Eyüpspor+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Eyüpspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

83%

Beşiktaş or Eyüpspor

81%

Draw or Eyüpspor

37%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

40%

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

89%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

66%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

39%

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

67%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

30%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

78%

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.93 · 10 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.71 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.81 + Eyüpspor defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.26

Eyüpspor attack 1.28 + Beşiktaş defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

63%

level

19%

Eyüpspor scores more

17%

Beşiktaş at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Rashica

Beşiktaş · M

8.5

Match Events

6'

Robin Yalçın

20'

M. Rashica↳ João Mário

61'

Mame ThiamPenalty confirmed

64'

E. AkbabaPenalty

66'

S. Kılıçsoy← Al Musrati

68'

J. Shelvey← Samu Sáiz

68'

H. Akbunar← E. Akbaba

72'

81'

81'

87'

90'

90+1'

Semih KılıçsoyPenalty confirmed

90+9'

Halil Akbunar

90'

Mame Thiam

90+4'

E. Topçu← Rafa

90+5'

J. Onana← C. Immobile

90+10'

O. Bulut← M. Rashica

90+3'

C. ImmobilePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşEyüpspor

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots11

1.86Expected Goals (xG)2.03

8Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target4

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

11Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

504Total Passes303

424Accurate Passes215

84%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.05Goals Prevented-0.05

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1