Eyüpspor 1–3 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats | League #203

Eyüpspor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Beşiktaş

T. Bingöl 1'

S. Kılıçsoy 60'

M. Rashica 45+2'

Rafa 18'

2/21/2025

League #203 · Round 25Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Eyüpspor29%

×Draw23%

Beşiktaş48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EyüpsporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.78

Eyüpspor

1.33

Beşiktaş

1.78

Beşiktaş creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

1.54

2.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Eyüpspor

1.28

Beşiktaş

1.54

allows per match

Eyüpspor

2.03

Beşiktaş

1.38

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Eyüpspor-0.28scores less

Beşiktaş-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw

52%

Eyüpspor or Beşiktaş

77%

Draw or Beşiktaş

71%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

12%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

74%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

38%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

15%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

83%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

53%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

38%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.03 · 8 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.28 + Beşiktaş defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Beşiktaş attack 1.54 + Eyüpspor defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eyüpspor scores more

29%

level

23%

Beşiktaş scores more

48%

Beşiktaş at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Rafa

Beşiktaş · M

8.9

Match Events

1'

T. Bingöl↳ E. Mor

18'

Rafa↳ C. Immobile

32'

Prince Ampem

45+2'

M. Rashica↳ Rafa

46'

H. Akbunar← Rúben Vezo

46'

U. Meraş← C. Erkin

46'

S. Kılıçsoy← C. Immobile

50'

58'

60'

67'

67'

67'

A. Hadžiahmetović← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

73'

T. Stepanenko← M. Kabasakal

76'

O. Bulut← A. Masuaku

76'

K. Arroyo← João Mário

86'

S. Uçan← Rafa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EyüpsporBeşiktaş

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots18

1.36Expected Goals (xG)3.05

4Corners2

10Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots18

3On Target7

3Off Target8

1Blocked3

6Inside Box13

1Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

384Total Passes475

319Accurate Passes392

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides6

League #203: Eyüpspor 1–3 Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 3-1 in League #203 on February 21, 2025.

Goals: T. Bingöl (1'), Rafa (18'), M. Rashica (45+2'), S. Kılıçsoy (60').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Eyüpspor 1–3 Beşiktaş