Beşiktaş 4–0 Eyüpspor: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Eyüpspor

A. Rebić 87'

C. Tosun 67', 36' (pen)

S. Uçan 16'

1/16/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundTüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Beşiktaş63%

×Draw19%

Eyüpspor18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchEyüpspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.16

Beşiktaş

2.35

Eyüpspor

1.16

Beşiktaş creates 103% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

2.28

creates per match

1.43

0.89

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Beşiktaş

2.28

Eyüpspor

1.43

allows per match

Beşiktaş

0.89

Eyüpspor

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Eyüpspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Eyüpspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

82%

Beşiktaş or Eyüpspor

81%

Draw or Eyüpspor

37%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

41%

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

90%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

68%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

41%

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

69%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

32%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

78%

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 2.28 + Eyüpspor defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.35

Eyüpspor attack 1.43 + Beşiktaş defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

63%

level

19%

Eyüpspor scores more

18%

Beşiktaş at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. Uçan

19'

A. Regattin← A. Kutucu

36'

C. TosunPenalty

46'

62'

62'

67'

72'

S. Kılıçsoy← C. Tosun

78'

J. Svensson← O. Bulut

78'

M. Rashica← Gedson Fernandes

87'

A. Rebić↳ T. Bingöl

88'

M. Hekimoğlu← A. Rebić

88'

J. Urozov← B. Yılmaz

Statistics

BeşiktaşEyüpspor

Overview

8Corners1

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor

Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on January 16, 2024.

Goals: S. Uçan (16'), C. Tosun (36' pen, 67'), A. Rebić (87').

The match was played at Tüpraş Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor