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Exeter City vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Exeter City
Exeter City
Preview
15:00
Oldham
Oldham
3/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 36St James Park
49%
Oldham
model favours
28%23%49%

Exeter City and Oldham have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Exeter City28%
×Draw23%
Oldham49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.31
Oldham
1.79

Oldham creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 32 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.40
Oldham
1.19

allows per match

Exeter City
2.40
Oldham
1.22

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
51%
Exeter City or Oldham
77%
Draw or Oldham
72%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
12%
Oldham wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
73%
Exeter City 2+ goals
38%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%
Oldham 1+ goals
83%
Oldham 2+ goals
53%
Oldham 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
37%
Oldham (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.40 + Oldham defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oldham attack 1.19 + Exeter City defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Exeter City scores more
28%
level
23%
Oldham scores more
49%

Oldham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
LDDDW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Exeter City face Oldham (League Two)

League Two returns with Exeter City hosting Oldham. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Exeter City host Oldham at St James Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.