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Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag — Eerste Divisie 2018

Excelsior
Excelsior
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
1/26/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Excelsior42%
×Draw23%
ADO Den Haag35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior
1.78
ADO Den Haag
1.61

Excelsior creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 95 away

creates per match

Excelsior
2.28
ADO Den Haag
1.77

allows per match

Excelsior
1.46
ADO Den Haag
1.28

finishing

Excelsior+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw
65%
Excelsior or ADO Den Haag
77%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
58%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+
22%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals
83%
Excelsior 2+ goals
53%
Excelsior 3+ goals
26%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
80%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
48%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)
55%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 2.28 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.78

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Excelsior defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Excelsior scores more
42%
level
23%
ADO Den Haag scores more
35%

Excelsior at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag

Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam.