ADO Den Haag 0–5 Excelsior: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Excelsior

J. Armantrading 88'

M. van Duinen 82'

C. Hatenboer 63'

R. Omorowa 58'

N. Naujoks 22'

8/30/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 4Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

ADO Den Haag44%

×Draw23%

Excelsior33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den HaagExpected goals in this matchExcelsior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.50

ADO Den Haag

1.78

Excelsior

1.50

ADO Den Haag creates 19% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 71 away

2.00

creates per match

1.72

1.28

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

ADO Den Haag

2.00

Excelsior

1.72

allows per match

ADO Den Haag

1.28

Excelsior

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Excelsior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw

67%

ADO Den Haag or Excelsior

77%

Draw or Excelsior

56%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

24%

Excelsior wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

83%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

53%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

26%

Excelsior 1+ goals

78%

Excelsior 2+ goals

44%

Excelsior 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

58%

Excelsior (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + Excelsior defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Excelsior attack 1.72 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more

44%

level

23%

Excelsior scores more

33%

ADO Den Haag at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

N. Naujoks

Excelsior · M

9.3

Match Events

22'

N. Naujoks↳ A. Zagré

41'

Ilias Bronkhorst

46'

D. Granli← M. Waem

58'

R. Omorowa↳ N. Naujoks

63'

C. Hatenboer↳ N. Naujoks

64'

M. van Duinen← S. Fini

66'

Jari Vlak

68'

D. Lourens← A. Schalk

72'

J. de Almeida Reis← I. Bronkhorst

72'

J. Eijgenraam← L. Hartjes

74'

R. Boakye← S. Sylla

80'

J. Armantrading← R. Omorowa

80'

S. Middendorp← J. Donkor

82'

M. van Duinen↳ J. Armantrading

84'

R. Struick← D. van Mieghem

85'

M. Hokke← S. Esajas

88'

J. Armantrading↳ J. de Almeida Reis

89'

Milan Hokke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ADOExcelsior

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots9

4Corners3

12Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots9

2On Target7

6Off Target2

0Blocked0

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

457Total Passes404

342Accurate Passes299

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: ADO Den Haag 0–5 Excelsior

Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on August 30, 2024.

Goals: N. Naujoks (22'), R. Omorowa (58'), C. Hatenboer (63'), M. van Duinen (82'), J. Armantrading (88').

ADO Den Haag controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in ‘s-Gravenhage.

ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: ADO Den Haag 0–5 Excelsior