Excelsior 7–1 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

Excelsior

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

ADO Den Haag

L. Lamprou 72'

K. Goudmijn 71'

J. Baas 55' (pen)

C. Driouech 40'

T. Parrott 31' (pen), 27', 3'

H. Veerman 45+2'

5/25/2024

Eredivisie · Relegation RoundVan Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Excelsior51%

×Draw22%

ADO Den Haag27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExcelsiorExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.35

Excelsior

1.92

ADO Den Haag

1.35

Excelsior creates 42% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 55 away

1.54

creates per match

1.11

1.58

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Excelsior

1.54

ADO Den Haag

1.11

allows per match

Excelsior

1.58

ADO Den Haag

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw

73%

Excelsior or ADO Den Haag

78%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

49%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+

29%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals

85%

Excelsior 2+ goals

57%

Excelsior 3+ goals

30%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

74%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

39%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)

65%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.58 · 74 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 1.54 + ADO Den Haag defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.92

ADO Den Haag attack 1.11 + Excelsior defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Excelsior scores more

51%

level

22%

ADO Den Haag scores more

27%

Excelsior at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Goudmijn

Excelsior · M

9.3

Match Events

3'

T. Parrott↳ K. Goudmijn

16'

Jort van der Sande

27'

T. Parrott↳ L. Lamprou

31'

T. ParrottPenalty

38'

M. Sellouki← J. van der Sande

38'

B. van Hintum← M. Waem

40'

C. Driouech↳ K. Goudmijn

45+2'

H. Veerman↳ N. Marsman

46'

C. Sandra← C. Driouech

46'

A. Absalem← J. Ideho

55'

J. BaasPenalty

59'

F. de Bruin← S. Esajas

65'

C. Widell← R. El Yaakoubi

71'

K. Goudmijn↳ A. Zagré

72'

L. Lamprou↳ C. Sandra

78'

S. de Moes← S. Horemans

78'

R. Omorowa← T. Parrott

78'

J. Donkor← L. Duijvestijn

82'

Bart van Hintum

84'

H. Koudossou← D. van Mieghem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExcelsiorADO

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots13

2Corners3

5Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots13

9On Target2

0Off Target5

2Blocked6

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

452Total Passes364

381Accurate Passes277

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2