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ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior — Eredivisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Excelsior
Excelsior
5/22/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Relegation RoundBingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

ADO Den Haag48%
×Draw22%
Excelsior30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
1.88
Excelsior
1.44

ADO Den Haag creates 31% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
1.32
Excelsior
1.18

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.70
Excelsior
2.44

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
70%
ADO Den Haag or Excelsior
78%
Draw or Excelsior
52%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
27%
Excelsior wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
85%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
56%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
29%
Excelsior 1+ goals
76%
Excelsior 2+ goals
42%
Excelsior 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
62%
Excelsior (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.70 · 56 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 1.32 + Excelsior defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.88

Excelsior attack 1.18 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
48%
level
22%
Excelsior scores more
30%

ADO Den Haag at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: ADO Den Haag 1–2 Excelsior

Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 2-1 in Eredivisie on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in ‘s-Gravenhage.