Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Envigado vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Envigado
Envigado
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
7/20/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Envigado32%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Cali39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.06
Deportivo Cali
1.19

Deportivo Cali creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

creates per match

Envigado
0.81
Deportivo Cali
1.00

allows per match

Envigado
1.38
Deportivo Cali
1.31

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
61%
Envigado or Deportivo Cali
71%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
68%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
65%
Envigado 2+ goals
29%
Envigado 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
45%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 0.81 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Cali attack 1.00 + Envigado defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Envigado scores more
32%
level
29%
Deportivo Cali scores more
39%

Deportivo Cali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. CuervoEnvigadoEnvigado · D
7.3

Match Events

45'
Andres Correa
46'
C. Graciano← A. Correa
46'
J. Aponza← Luis Orejuela
47'
Yeison Gordillo
52'
Geindry Cuervo
57'
Didier Palacios
63'
Frey Berrio
70'
L. Angulo← J. Palacio
70'
R. C. Espana Alvarez← J. Garces
73'
R. Bustamante← A. Colorado
74'
J. Moreno← Javier Reina
78'
Andrey Estupiñán
82'
L. Gomez← E. Lopez
82'
S. Londono← F. Berrio
84'
J. Montoya← A. Hurtado

Possession

45%Envigado

Shots

9Envigado

Pass accuracy

50%Envigado

Statistics

EnvigadoDeportivo
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots7
1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.12
2Corners9
15Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots7
2On Target0
4Off Target4
3Blocked3
3Inside Box3
6Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
301Total Passes353
211Accurate Passes249
70%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls12
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Envigado vs Deportivo Cali

Envigado and Deportivo Cali drew 0-0 in Primera A on July 20, 2025.

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.