Deportivo Cali 1–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Envigado

E. Rodriguez 59'

2/2/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Deportivo Cali41%

×Draw31%

Envigado28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.84

Deportivo Cali

1.10

Envigado

0.84

Deportivo Cali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

1.08

creates per match

0.87

0.82

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Envigado

0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.82

Envigado

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

72%

Deportivo Cali or Envigado

69%

Draw or Envigado

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

17%

Envigado wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

Envigado 1+ goals

57%

Envigado 2+ goals

21%

Envigado 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

60%

Envigado (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Envigado defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Envigado attack 0.87 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

41%

level

31%

Envigado scores more

28%

Deportivo Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Rodriguez

Deportivo Cali · F

8.2

Match Events

23'

Geindry Cuervo

36'

Julián Palacios

46'

G. Corujo← Juan Quintero

46'

F. Castillo← A. Estupinan

59'

E. Rodriguez

60'

J. Cantillo← J. Colorado

67'

Dorlan PabónGoal cancelled

72'

C. Graciano← F. Viafara

72'

W. Hurtado← S. Cuervo

72'

S. Londono← J. Garces

76'

Edison López

77'

Y. Gordillo← J. Barrera

78'

T. Soto← D. Pabon

79'

82'

88'

90+5'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoEnvigado

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots13

7Corners1

10Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target2

5Off Target9

4Blocked2

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

63%Possession37%

387Total Passes228

318Accurate Passes159

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1