Deportivo Cali 2–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Envigado

J. Caldera 76'

F. Montero 38'

4/21/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportivo Cali41%

×Draw30%

Envigado29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.91

Deportivo Cali

1.15

Envigado

0.91

Deportivo Cali creates 26% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 24 away

1.18

creates per match

0.88

0.93

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.18

Envigado

0.88

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.93

Envigado

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

71%

Deportivo Cali or Envigado

70%

Draw or Envigado

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

17%

Envigado wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

Envigado 1+ goals

60%

Envigado 2+ goals

23%

Envigado 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

59%

Envigado (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.18 + Envigado defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Envigado attack 0.88 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

41%

level

30%

Envigado scores more

29%

Deportivo Cali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Montero

Deportivo Cali · F

7.9

Match Events

30'

Rubio España

33'

J. Córdoba← J. Valencia

38'

46'

51'

58'

59'

62'

71'

Bayron GarcésPenalty cancelled

75'

F. Castillo← A. Estupiñán

76'

J. Caldera↳ J. Barrera

80'

D. Arcila← L. Díaz

80'

D. Palacios← C. Arboleda

80'

Y. Moreno← W. Hurtado

84'

J. Reina← J. Barrera

84'

A. Andrade← F. Montero

85'

Alejandro Rodríguez

90+3'

Daniel Arcila

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoEnvigado

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots10

6Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target1

5Off Target6

1Blocked3

5Inside Box2

5Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

341Total Passes387

261Accurate Passes303

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Envigado

Deportivo Cali beat Envigado 2-0 in Primera A on April 21, 2024.

Goals: F. Montero (38'), J. Caldera (76').

Envigado controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.

Deportivo Cali vs Envigado — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Envigado