Envigado 3–0 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Envigado

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cali

L. Díaz 83', 7'

B. Garcés 52'

10/20/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 18Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Envigado36%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Cali35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.13

Envigado

1.15

Deportivo Cali

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 45 away

0.92

creates per match

0.96

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Envigado

0.92

Deportivo Cali

0.96

allows per match

Envigado

1.29

Deportivo Cali

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

65%

Envigado or Deportivo Cali

71%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

64%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

68%

Envigado 2+ goals

32%

Envigado 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 0.92 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Cali attack 0.96 + Envigado defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Envigado scores more

36%

level

29%

Deportivo Cali scores more

35%

Envigado at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Parra

Envigado · G

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Roger Murillo

7'

L. Díaz↳ Y. Rodallega

23'

46'

52'

56'

57'

J. Córdoba← J. Vásquez

63'

Andrés Cadavid

65'

A. Arroyo← F. Castro

66'

Y. Celedón← J. Palacios

68'

Luis Haquín

68'

Luis Haquín

72'

Rubio España

74'

R. Murillo← L. Sandoval

74'

K. Saucedo← K. Salazar

76'

A. Palacios← F. Charrupí

77'

C. Paternina← R. España

83'

L. Díaz

85'

H. Palacios← L. Díaz

85'

D. Zapata← D. Arcila

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnvigadoDeportivo

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots18

1Corners11

12Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots18

11On Target8

7Off Target4

0Blocked6

9Inside Box13

9Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

444Total Passes327

385Accurate Passes259

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

8Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2