Envigado 0–0 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Envigado

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

9/20/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Envigado40%

×Draw29%

Alianza Valledupar31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.02

Envigado

1.18

Alianza Valledupar

1.02

Envigado creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 48 away

0.92

creates per match

0.75

1.29

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Envigado

0.92

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Envigado

1.29

Alianza Valledupar

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

69%

Envigado or Alianza Valledupar

71%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

60%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

17%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

69%

Envigado 2+ goals

33%

Envigado 3+ goals

12%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

64%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

27%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

56%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 0.92 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Envigado defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Envigado scores more

40%

level

29%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

31%

Envigado at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

P. Franco

Alianza Valledupar · D

7.5

Match Events

12'

21'

23'

46'

46'

J. Hinestroza← L. Gomez

46'

W. Hurtado← T. Soto

46'

W. Fernandez← R. Manjarres

46'

L. Perez← J. Castillo

54'

Wiston Fernández

64'

J. Holguin← J. Quejada

65'

Geindry Cuervo

67'

J. E. Perez Balcazar← E. Torres

68'

Didier Palacios

74'

Carlos Gonzalez

76'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← J. Munoz

80'

R. C. Espana Alvarez← D. A. Valencia Mosquera

80'

F. Mosquera← J. Munoz

90+3'

William Hurtado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnvigadoAlianza

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots12

0Corners7

15Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots12

0On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked6

3Inside Box6

2Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

281Total Passes331

198Accurate Passes266

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Primera A: Envigado 0–0 Alianza Valledupar

Envigado and Alianza Valledupar drew 0-0 in Primera A on September 20, 2025.

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.

Envigado vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Envigado 0–0 Alianza Valledupar