Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Envigado: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Envigado

L. Saldaña 76'

B. Garcés 86'

8/12/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Alianza Valledupar48%

×Draw28%

Envigado24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.85

Alianza Valledupar

1.34

Envigado

0.85

Alianza Valledupar creates 58% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 40 away

1.24

creates per match

0.72

0.98

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.24

Envigado

0.72

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.98

Envigado

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

76%

Alianza Valledupar or Envigado

72%

Draw or Envigado

52%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

23%

Envigado wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

74%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

39%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

15%

Envigado 1+ goals

57%

Envigado 2+ goals

21%

Envigado 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

67%

Envigado (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.24 + Envigado defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Envigado attack 0.72 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

48%

level

28%

Envigado scores more

24%

Alianza Valledupar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

L. Saldaña

Alianza Valledupar · D

7.7

Match Events

29'

R. Colpa← J. García

36'

Pedro Franco

45+3'

Luis Díaz

57'

Andrés RenteríaCard upgrade

58'

Andrés Rentería

62'

M. Martínez← E. Torres

62'

J. Muñoz← R. Manjarrés

70'

74'

76'

81'

82'

83'

D. Palacios← J. Cuesta

83'

D. Arcila← N. Ramírez

86'

90+9'

90+11'

90+2'

90+2'

C. Arboleda← J. Villa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaEnvigado

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots11

5Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target3

6Off Target6

5Blocked2

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

433Total Passes302

363Accurate Passes231

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Envigado

Alianza Valledupar and Envigado drew 1-1 in Primera A on August 12, 2024.

Goals: L. Saldaña (76'), B. Garcés (86').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Envigado — Primera A 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Envigado