Alianza Valledupar 1–2 Envigado: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Envigado

R. Manjarres 58'

J. Garces 17'

D. Arcila 9'

4/4/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Alianza Valledupar44%

×Draw30%

Envigado26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.86

Alianza Valledupar

1.21

Envigado

0.86

Alianza Valledupar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

1.28

creates per match

0.88

0.85

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.28

Envigado

0.88

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.85

Envigado

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

74%

Alianza Valledupar or Envigado

70%

Draw or Envigado

56%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

19%

Envigado wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

70%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

34%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

12%

Envigado 1+ goals

58%

Envigado 2+ goals

21%

Envigado 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

63%

Envigado (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.28 + Envigado defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Envigado attack 0.88 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

44%

level

30%

Envigado scores more

26%

Alianza Valledupar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Manjarres

Alianza Valledupar · M

7.6

Match Events

9'

D. Arcila↳ J. Holguin

17'

J. Garces↳ D. Dawson

31'

Edwin Torres

46'

R. Manjarres← L. Perez

56'

Didier Dawson

58'

R. Manjarres

63'

J. Munoz← W. Fernandez

63'

J. Araujo← D. Dawson

68'

C. Vergara← M. Gil

72'

J. Palacio← E. Lopez

72'

M. Marulanda← J. Garces

76'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← E. Torres

76'

J. Parra← D. A. Mendoza Benitez

80'

87'

87'

88'

90+6'

90+6'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaEnvigado

Overview

74%Possession26%

15Total Shots6

8Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots6

3On Target3

7Off Target3

5Blocked0

11Inside Box1

4Outside Box5

Passing

74%Possession26%

458Total Passes173

363Accurate Passes89

79%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards6

1Offsides2

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–2 Envigado

Envigado beat Alianza Valledupar 2-1 in Primera A on April 4, 2025.

Goals: D. Arcila (9'), J. Garces (17'), R. Manjarres (58').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (74%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Envigado — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–2 Envigado