Alianza Valledupar 3–3 Envigado: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Envigado

J. Osorio 82', 61' (pen)

E. Torres 30' (pen)

D. Arcila 86' (pen)

J. Garces 45'

L. Diaz 10'

6/11/2025

Copa Colombia · 1st Round - 4Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Alianza Valledupar53%

×Draw24%

Envigado23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

Alianza Valledupar

1.67

Envigado

1.00

Alianza Valledupar creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

2.00

Envigado

1.00

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.00

Envigado

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

77%

Alianza Valledupar or Envigado

76%

Draw or Envigado

47%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

29%

Envigado wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

81%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

50%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

23%

Envigado 1+ goals

63%

Envigado 2+ goals

26%

Envigado 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

70%

Envigado (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Envigado away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 2.00 + Envigado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Envigado attack 1.00 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

53%

level

24%

Envigado scores more

23%

Alianza Valledupar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

L. Diaz

30'

E. TorresPenalty

45'

J. Garces

61'

J. OsorioPenalty

82'

J. Osorio

86'

D. ArcilaPenalty

Alianza

Envigado

Manager: Hubert Antonio Bodhert Barrios

Manager: Andres Orozco