Emmen 1–2 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Emmen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Almere City FC

J. Vlak 58'

J. Smeets 53'

R. van La Parra 50'

6/11/2023

Eredivisie · Relegation RoundDe Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Emmen45%

×Draw25%

Almere City FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.20

Emmen

1.52

Almere City FC

1.20

Emmen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 37 away

1.41

creates per match

0.76

1.64

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Emmen

1.41

Almere City FC

0.76

allows per match

Emmen

1.64

Almere City FC

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Emmen or draw

70%

Emmen or Almere City FC

75%

Draw or Almere City FC

55%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+

22%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals

78%

Emmen 2+ goals

45%

Emmen 3+ goals

20%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

70%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

34%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)

60%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.41 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + Emmen defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Emmen scores more

45%

level

25%

Almere City FC scores more

30%

Emmen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Diemers

Emmen · M

7.3

Match Events

16'

Joey Jacobs

46'

J. Assehnoun← J. Antonisse

46'

T. Poll← J. Jacobs

50'

R. van La Parra↳ A. Limbombe

53'

Jari Vlak

53'

J. Smeets

57'

M. Bouchouari← A. El Messaoudi

57'

58'

59'

60'

62'

69'

D. Post← Pascu

71'

L. Bernadou← J. Veldmate

76'

Marcelencio Esajas

81'

J. Ritmeester van de Kamp← Álvaro Peña

81'

J. Hilterman← A. Limbombe

85'

B. Scholte← L. Burnet

86'

Ole RomenyPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmmenAlmere

Overview

67%Possession33%

13Total Shots7

10Corners2

9Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target4

6Off Target1

3Blocked2

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

509Total Passes264

385Accurate Passes168

76%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls19

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2