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Almere City FC vs Emmen — Eredivisie 2026

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emmen
Emmen
L. Duijvestijn 77', 65' (pen)
6/6/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Relegation RoundYanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC41%
×Draw25%
Emmen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.53
Emmen
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 64 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
0.92
Emmen
0.86

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.94
Emmen
2.14

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
65%
Almere City FC or Emmen
75%
Draw or Emmen
59%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
20%
Emmen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
78%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
45%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
20%
Emmen 1+ goals
75%
Emmen 2+ goals
41%
Emmen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
54%
Emmen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

Emmen away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + Emmen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.53

Emmen attack 0.86 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Almere City FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Emmen scores more
35%

Almere City FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. BakkerAlmere City FCAlmere City FC · G
8.6

Match Events

33'
Álvaro Peña
40'
Lorenzo Burnet
44'
Jorrit Smeets
55'
A. Limbombe← J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
65'
L. DuijvestijnPenalty
77'
L. Duijvestijn
81'
M. Esajas← R. van La Parra
81'
O. Darfalou← R. Živković
82'
B. Scholte← J. Antonisse
86'
J. Assehnoun← O. Romeny
90'
S. Resink← J. Smeets
90'
J. Hilterman← Álvaro Peña

Possession

55%Almere

Shots

12Almere

Pass accuracy

51%Almere

Statistics

AlmereEmmen
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots12
4Corners5
11Fouls5
Shots
12Total Shots12
4On Target6
2Off Target4
6Blocked2
9Inside Box6
3Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
508Total Passes406
377Accurate Passes291
74%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls5
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Eredivisie: Almere City FC 2–0 Emmen

Almere City FC beat Emmen 2-0 in Eredivisie on June 6, 2023.

Goals: L. Duijvestijn (65' pen, 77').

Almere City FC controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.