Almere City FC 4–2 Emmen: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Emmen

T. Vianello 80'

J. Rijkhoff 49', 15'

M. de Haan 41'

R. Postema 90'

J. Hawkins 60'

12/20/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 21Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Almere City FC53%

×Draw21%

Emmen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.46

Almere City FC

2.13

Emmen

1.46

Almere City FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.16

creates per match

1.43

1.49

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Almere City FC

2.16

Emmen

1.43

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.49

Emmen

2.11

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.70scores more

Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

74%

Almere City FC or Emmen

79%

Draw or Emmen

47%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

31%

Emmen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

88%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

63%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

35%

Emmen 1+ goals

77%

Emmen 2+ goals

43%

Emmen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

67%

Emmen (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.49 · 7 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 2.16 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.13

Emmen attack 1.43 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Almere City FC scores more

53%

level

21%

Emmen scores more

26%

Almere City FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Rijkhoff

Almere City FC · M

9.3

Match Events

15'

J. Rijkhoff

19'

Emmanuel van de Blaak

28'

33'

39'

41'

46'

J. Hawkins← D. Nunumete

49'

J. Rijkhoff

55'

Milan de Haan

60'

J. Hawkins↳ R. Postema

63'

O. de Nijs← F. Druijf

71'

F. Quispel← L. Everink

75'

B. Reith← J. Kadile

75'

E. Cornelisse← M. de Haan

75'

R. Providence← J. Rijkhoff

75'

S. van Manen← G. Bolk

76'

D. Beukers← F. Gerezgiher

80'

T. Vianello↳ R. Providence

84'

T. Bijleveld← T. Vianello

90'

R. Postema↳ J. Hawkins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereEmmen

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots9

3.19Expected Goals (xG)1.74

5Corners1

4Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots9

11On Target5

3Off Target3

4Blocked1

12Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

430Total Passes441

337Accurate Passes340

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

4Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3

Eerste Divisie: Almere City FC 4–2 Emmen

Almere City FC beat Emmen 4-2 in Eerste Divisie on December 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Rijkhoff (15', 49'), M. de Haan (41'), J. Hawkins (60'), T. Vianello (80'), R. Postema (90').

Emmen controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.

Almere City FC vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Almere City FC 4–2 Emmen