Almere City FC 0–0 Emmen: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Emmen

2/11/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 26Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Almere City FC53%

×Draw21%

Emmen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.46

Almere City FC

2.13

Emmen

1.46

Almere City FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.16

creates per match

1.43

1.49

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Almere City FC

2.16

Emmen

1.43

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.49

Emmen

2.11

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.70scores more

Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

74%

Almere City FC or Emmen

79%

Draw or Emmen

47%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

31%

Emmen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

88%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

63%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

35%

Emmen 1+ goals

77%

Emmen 2+ goals

43%

Emmen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

67%

Emmen (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.49 · 7 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 2.16 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.13

Emmen attack 1.43 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Almere City FC scores more

53%

level

21%

Emmen scores more

26%

Almere City FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Bakker

Almere City FC · G

7.7

Match Events

46'

T. van Leeuwen← B. van Hoeven

53'

D. Post← J. Smeets

55'

Thijs van Leeuwen

61'

A. Toufiqui← P. van Ooijen

61'

Rui Mendes← J. Assehnoun

64'

Rui Mendes

69'

J. Arweiler← T. Wildeboer

71'

M. Güçlü← M. Lieder

71'

A. Luzayadio← K. Veendorp

79'

Marcelencio Esajas

81'

Miguel Araujo

83'

J. Zimmerman← J. Puriel

84'

M. Apau← J. Hardeveld

90+4'

Ramon Leeuwin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereEmmen

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots11

9Corners7

18Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots11

1On Target3

3Off Target5

5Blocked3

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

366Total Passes429

247Accurate Passes306

67%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1